The Revolutionary Guard claims a tanker strike for an “unauthorised route”, as Central Command declares the lanes open

What happened

Strikes on tankers continued through the first ten days of October: UKMTO reported a tanker damaged with an engine-room fire in the strait on 5 October, and on 6 October the Panama-flagged On Peace was struck about nine nautical miles off Limah and set on fire, with ten crew evacuated to Khasab by Oman's defence ministry and at least twelve of the nineteen injured by India's account. On 9 October the Revolutionary Guard claimed it had set the "Sun Shine" ablaze for using an "unauthorised route" in the strait's southern section, said action against "violating" vessels would no longer be limited to the strait, and said companies cooperating with the United States would be sanctioned and their ships targeted. Kpler counted seven commodity vessels through the strait on 6 October, the fewest since 23 July. The same day as the Guard's claim, Central Command said it had cleared mines from the main shipping lanes and declared them open to vessels not violating United States sanctions on Iran; on 10 October it said a United States fighter had disabled a vessel leaving an Iranian port, the fourth since the blockade of Iranian ports began on 14 July.

THE ATTRIBUTION LAYER MOVED. Through the strikes of late September no party claimed a ship. Here the Guard claimed one in its own name, gave a reason — a route Iran has not authorised — and stated a reach beyond the water it says it controls. That is a legal claim enforced unilaterally; no other riparian accepts it, and it is not a régime. Two blockades now run side by side: the United States stops ships leaving Iranian ports, and the Guard strikes ships on routes it has not authorised. Central Command's "open" is conditional on the first and says nothing about the second. The record does not establish who fired on the vessels the Guard did not claim, or that the claimed "Sun Shine" is the carrier UKMTO placed off Al-Jazira. Clearance is recorded as the command's statement only; Vigil publishes nothing on where any hazard lies.

Confidence: Moderate