The east–west pipeline is reported restarted at a low rate

What happened

Reuters reports on 22 September, on three sources briefed on the matter, that Saudi Arabia restarted the east–west pipeline that day and that it was pumping at a low rate, with one cargo scheduled to load at Yanbu, bound for China; a security source said full resumption could take weeks. The line had been shut since the drone attack of 10 September, which Reuters dates to the 11th. Wire reporting in the same coverage put a rate of 40 per cent within days and a full restart at six to eight weeks. Maritime Executive, citing Bloomberg, the Financial Times and commercial satellite imagery, describes a shunt laid to bypass a damaged pumping station, three stations damaged and eight sufficient for reduced operation, and up to six weeks to restore nameplate capacity. The capacity figures differ by source — a line of up to 4 million barrels a day in the Reuters account, 7 million nameplate in the other. Brent fell by more than two dollars on the day. No Saudi ministry or Aramco statement of the restart, its rate, a timeline or a damage assessment has been published. LOADINGS RESUMED, STILL UNANNOUNCED. Between 25 and 28 September Yanbu tanker loadings were reported resumed. Reuters cited trade sources and shipping data, and an Asian refining source said Aramco had notified customers of an October loading programme on 28 September. Bloomberg reported overseas shipments restarted after a 17-day halt. TankerTrackers.com read European Space Agency imagery of 27 September as showing nearly 10 million barrels loading at Yanbu and Al Muajjiz. Throughput was estimated at about 2 million barrels a day by an industry source and 2.65 million by Kpler, which expected 3 to 4 million within days. The Joint Maritime Information Center described the restart as unconfirmed on 1 October and said regular Yanbu loadings were not independently confirmed. No ministry or operator statement had been published by 3 October.

THE BYPASS IS BACK IN SERVICE AT A RATE NOBODY HAS STATED. Twelve days after the Hormuz alternative was cut at its middle, oil is reported moving west again, and the first Yanbu cargo since the attack is scheduled — which reopens, at the margin, the Red Sea route this module treats as the strait's principal alternative. Three things are not established and are held apart here. The rate: "low" is the only description from the sources, and the percentages and timetables are estimates by people who did not operate the line. The export volume: even before the attack, terminal throughput at Yanbu and domestic refinery offtake, not the pipeline, set how much could load, and a partial restart leaves both constraints where they were. And the durability: the restart moved nothing on the other side of the ledger — Yanbu remained a declared Houthi target through the same week, with every Saudi account of those attacks one of interception. What changed is that the escorted Hormuz route is no longer the only way out for Saudi crude; what did not change is that no operator has said anything at all.

Confidence: Moderate