How a security development transmits into economic exposure or civilian impact, one step at a time — with every step graded for how firmly it is established.
South Caucasus / North CaucasusRegional systemPublished
Published
Newest chain assessed
2026-08
Conflict reviewed
2026-09-06
Weekly review / event-driven updates
Risk context, not investment advice. These records explain mechanisms and state how firmly each link is established; they contain no prices, tickers, named securities, forecasts or recommendations.
How each step is gradedA step can never be graded more firmly than the step it depends on: a consequence cannot be better established than its cause. That rule is enforced when this site is built — a chain that broke it would fail the build rather than publish.
ConfirmedDocumented as having occurred, with sources.
Plausible exposureA mechanism Vigil assesses as likely; not documented as having occurred.
Unconfirmed scenarioNamed because it is worth watching. Not asserted.
The mechanisms4 transmission mechanisms in Caucasus, each shown as its own stage sequence. The grade under each stage is that step’s, not the chain’s — the point of the strip is to show where a mechanism stops being documented.
What it costs to be a landlocked country with half its borders shut, measured over thirty years rather than predicted.
Standing conditionTwo of Armenia's four land borders closed since the 1990s, with no maritime access and no domestic substitute for imported energy or most goods
Affected asset, route or regionConfirmed
Operational disruptionConfirmed
Exposed sector or commodityConfirmed
Broader economic significancePlausible exposure
Lands onImport and export costs · Household prices and producer margins · Trade-route redundancy · Economic dependence on Russia · Regional integration and investment
Three separate corridors, one country in the middle of all of them, and a political crisis nobody priced.
Standing conditionThree distinct transit systems — energy export, east–west trade and Armenian access — all routed through a single state
Affected asset, route or regionConfirmed
Operational disruptionConfirmed
Exposed sector or commodityConfirmed
Broader economic significancePlausible exposure
Lands onCaspian energy export revenue · Middle Corridor transit volumes · Armenian import and export access · Georgian transit revenue and investment · European non-Russian gas supply
Lands onShelter, schooling and employment for the displaced · Documentation and legal status · Property and restitution claims · Cultural and religious heritage · Detained persons and the missing · Absorptive capacity of Armenian services
A line moved fifty metres, and the people who can no longer reach their field, their pension or their doctor.
Standing conditionProgressive physical demarcation of boundary lines that run through functioning communities, with crossing points closed or restricted
Lands onAgricultural land and water access · Pension and social-payment access · Medical care and health services · Family contact across the lines · Freedom of movement and detention risk · Viability of boundary-adjacent communities
4 graded stepsAs of 2026-06→
Evidence and grading
Basis
How firmly one STEP is established — documented, assessed as likely, or named but unverified. It is a property of the link, not of the chain.
Confidence
How well established Vigil considers this assessment to be. It is not a measure of how severe the situation is.
