Observed operations
The Armenia–Azerbaijan normalisation track
A peace text agreed and not signed, a border being drawn a few villages at a time, and a corridor question nobody has solved.
Conflict coverage · South Caucasus
Context, not targeting. Campaign records describe objectives, participants, phases and outcomes at the level of published analysis; they contain no current positions, force ratios, unit locations or strengths.
Campaigns3 sustained efforts in Caucasus, each grouping the events that belong to it. Status describes where a campaign stands, never who is winning.
Observed operations
Georgia's territorial conflicts — Abkhazia and South Ossetia
Two wars in the 1990s, one in 2008, and eighteen years of a boundary that is policed rather than negotiated — while the territories behind it are absorbed by treaty.
Observed operations
The Karabakh conflict, 1988–2023
Thirty-five years, three rounds of fighting and a complete reversal — the territorial question that organised the whole region's politics, now closed by force.
Evidence and grading
- Observed operation
- Documented as having occurred or as occurring, with sources. Its lifecycle status says where it stands.
- Confidence
- How well established Vigil considers this assessment to be. It is not a measure of how severe the situation is.