Observed operations
The strategic campaign against Ukraine's electricity system
A war on the grid rather than the army — seasonal, repeated, and aimed at whether a country can be kept running at all.
Conflict coverage · Eastern Europe
Context, not targeting. Campaign records describe objectives, participants, phases and outcomes at the level of published analysis; they contain no current positions, force ratios, unit locations or strengths.
Campaigns7 sustained efforts in Ukraine–Russia, each grouping the events that belong to it. Status describes where a campaign stands, never who is winning.
Observed operations
The eastern attritional campaign
The war's centre of gravity: a slow, costly contest for fortified industrial ground that neither side can leave and neither can finish.
Observed operations
The Ukrainian deep-strike campaign
Attacking the war's supply and revenue rather than its front — refineries, airbases and the fleet, at ranges that kept expanding.
Observed operations
Force generation and mobilisation
The campaign fought in recruitment offices and budget lines, and the one that sets what either army can do on the ground.
Observed operations
The Black Sea campaign and the export corridor
A country with no fleet pushed a fleet out of a sea, and got its export economy back without an agreement.
Observed operations
The Ukrainian counteroffensives, 2022–2023
The same instrument used twice: decisive against an unprepared line in 2022, and stopped by a prepared one in 2023.
Observed operations
The February 2022 invasion and the failure at Kyiv
The four-axis opening campaign that assumed a state would collapse in days, and the six weeks that proved it would not.
Evidence and grading
- Observed operation
- Documented as having occurred or as occurring, with sources. Its lifecycle status says where it stands.
- Confidence
- How well established Vigil considers this assessment to be. It is not a measure of how severe the situation is.