Phase I
Maidan, Crimea and the first Donbas war
The war began not in 2022 but in 2014.
Conflict coverage · Eastern Europe
The phases6 dated periods in Ukraine–Russia, in order. Each opens its own section below: what happened, what the period covers, the analytical takeaway, and the key events it produced — every one of them dated and sourced individually on the timeline.
Phase II
A frozen line that never froze
For seven years the war continued at low intensity along a static line of contact — trench positions, sniper and artillery exchanges, and more than thirteen thousand dead by the eve of the full-scale invasion.
Phase III
The full-scale invasion and its failure at Kyiv
On 24 February 2022 Russia invaded on multiple axes, expecting rapid political collapse.
Phase IV
Counteroffensives, annexation and the energy war
In September 2022 Ukraine routed thinly held Russian lines in the Kharkiv region and, by November, forced the withdrawal from Kherson — the only regional capital Russia had taken.
Phase V
Failed offensives and the attritional turn
Ukraine's long-prepared southern counteroffensive stalled against the deepest fortifications in Europe; the theory that Western equipment plus Ukrainian will would breach prepared defences did not survive contact.
Phase VI
The drone-saturated long war
The current phase is a contest of endurance.
Phase IMaidan, Crimea and the first Donbas war2013 – 2015
What happened
The war began not in 2022 but in 2014. The Euromaidan protests forced President Yanukovych from office in February 2014 after he abandoned an EU association agreement under Russian pressure. Within days, Russian forces without insignia seized Crimea; a stage-managed referendum and annexation followed in March, recognised by almost no one. In the Donbas, armed takeovers of administrative buildings — locally rooted but Russian-directed and increasingly Russian-manned — escalated into open warfare. When Ukrainian forces neared defeat of the separatist formations in August 2014, regular Russian units intervened decisively at Ilovaisk; the pattern repeated at Debaltseve in February 2015. The Minsk agreements ended the largest battles and froze a line of contact that would move little for seven years.
The period covers
- Euromaidan and the fall of the Yanukovych government, February 2014
- Russian seizure and annexation of Crimea, February–March 2014
- Armed separatism in Donetsk and Luhansk, Russian-directed and reinforced
- Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 shot down over the Donbas, July 2014
- Ilovaisk and Debaltseve — regular Russian intervention at the decisive moments
- Minsk I and Minsk II freeze the line without resolving anything
Key analytical point
Everything that followed was prefigured here: deniable force, annexation presented as accomplished fact, and a negotiated freeze that traded unresolved sovereignty for reduced violence. Treating 2014–2022 as "pre-war" repeats the framing error that made the full-scale invasion a surprise.
Confidence: HighSources: Established historical record
Phase IIA frozen line that never froze2015 – 2021
What happened
For seven years the war continued at low intensity along a static line of contact — trench positions, sniper and artillery exchanges, and more than thirteen thousand dead by the eve of the full-scale invasion. Diplomacy deadlocked on sequencing: Minsk II required both elections in the separatist-held areas and the return of border control to Ukraine, and each side insisted the other's obligation came first. Russia distributed passports in the separatist-held Donbas, tightening its grip while denying it was a party to the conflict. Ukraine rebuilt its army and wrote its NATO and EU course into its constitution. In the spring and again in the autumn of 2021, Russia massed forces near Ukraine's borders — presented as exercises, read by most observers as coercive diplomacy until it wasn't.
The period covers
- Static line of contact with continuous low-intensity fighting
- Minsk implementation deadlock — sequencing as the unresolvable core
- Russian passportisation of the separatist-held Donbas
- Ukraine's NATO/EU course written into its constitution, 2019
- The 2021 build-ups and escalating Russian demands on NATO
Key analytical point
Minsk's constructive ambiguity let both sides sign a settlement each read in opposite ways. When Moscow re-tested the question in late 2021, the gap was undiminished — and this time it had built the force to resolve it unilaterally.
Confidence: HighSources: Established historical record
Phase IIIThe full-scale invasion and its failure at KyivFeb – Aug 2022
What happened
On 24 February 2022 Russia invaded on multiple axes, expecting rapid political collapse. The plan failed within days: the airborne assault on Hostomel airport was destroyed as a coup de main, Kyiv did not fall, and the government did not flee. By April Russia had withdrawn from the capital's approaches — leaving behind the documented atrocities of Bucha — and redefined the war as a battle for the Donbas. Mariupol fell in May after a siege that levelled the city. At sea, Ukraine sank the Black Sea Fleet flagship Moskva; on land, the war ground into artillery attrition in the east while the July grain-corridor agreement reopened a lifeline for Ukrainian exports.
The period covers
- Multi-axis invasion aimed at rapid political collapse, 24 February 2022
- Hostomel — the coup de main defeated in the war's first days
- Withdrawal from the Kyiv axis; Bucha's atrocities documented
- The siege and fall of Mariupol
- Sinking of the Moskva — the naval war's opening asymmetric blow
- Black Sea grain corridor opens, July 2022
Key analytical point
The opening weeks disproved both capitals' central assumptions — Russia's that Ukraine would fold, and much of the West's that Ukraine could not fight. Every later phase flows from that double surprise.
Confidence: HighSources: Established historical record · ISW campaign assessments↗
Phase IVCounteroffensives, annexation and the energy warSep 2022 – May 2023
What happened
In September 2022 Ukraine routed thinly held Russian lines in the Kharkiv region and, by November, forced the withdrawal from Kherson — the only regional capital Russia had taken. Moscow answered with commitment devices: declared annexation of four partly occupied regions, partial mobilisation of some three hundred thousand men, and, from October, a strategic strike campaign against Ukraine's power grid intended to break civilian endurance through the winter. The Kerch bridge strike and the Nord Stream sabotage marked the war's spread into infrastructure everywhere. Through the winter and spring the fighting concentrated on Bakhmut — a battle whose cost outran its operational meaning, and which made the Wagner Group a political actor.
The period covers
- Kharkiv rout and the Kherson withdrawal — Ukraine's high-water autumn
- Annexation declarations and partial mobilisation, September 2022
- The grid campaign — winter as a weapon from October 2022
- Kerch bridge struck; Nord Stream pipelines sabotaged
- Bakhmut — attrition as strategy, and Wagner's rise
Key analytical point
Autumn 2022 was the maximum of Ukrainian battlefield momentum. Russia's response — mobilisation, annexation-as-commitment, infrastructure war — deliberately traded initiative for a longer war it believed it could better endure.
Key events in this phase
Confidence: HighSources: Established historical record · ISW campaign assessments↗
Phase VFailed offensives and the attritional turnJun 2023 – Dec 2024
What happened
Ukraine's long-prepared southern counteroffensive stalled against the deepest fortifications in Europe; the theory that Western equipment plus Ukrainian will would breach prepared defences did not survive contact. The Wagner mutiny in June 2023 exposed fissures in the Russian system without breaking it. Ukraine's clearest successes came where it could bypass mass: naval drones and missiles pushed the Black Sea Fleet out of the western Black Sea and reopened a unilateral export corridor, and deep strikes reached Russian refineries and airfields. A six-month interruption of US aid rationed Ukrainian artillery and air defence into 2024; Avdiivka fell, Russian glide bombs began demolishing frontline towns, and Ukraine's Kursk incursion traded scarce reserves for leverage. By late 2024 North Korean troops had joined the war on Russia's side.
The period covers
- The southern counteroffensive falls short of prepared defences
- Wagner mutiny — the system shakes, and holds
- The Black Sea Fleet pushed east; the export corridor reopened
- The US aid gap, October 2023 – April 2024, and its battlefield price
- Avdiivka falls; the Kursk incursion; North Korean troops deploy
Key analytical point
By 2024 the war had settled into industrial attrition, where aid continuity, ammunition production and manpower policy moved the front more than operational art. Ukraine's asymmetric wins — at sea and in deep strike — showed where it could still impose costs at scale.
Key events in this phase
Southern counteroffensive falls short · Jun – Nov 2023Wagner mutiny · Jun 2023Armed raid into Belgorod region · 22 – 23 May 2023Cross-border incursions into Belgorod and Kursk regions · May 2023 – Mar 2024Black Sea Fleet pushed from the western Black Sea · 2023 – early 2024Six-month US aid interruption · Oct 2023 – Apr 2024Avdiivka falls; Kursk incursion · 2024North Korean troops deploy to the war · Oct 2024 →
Confidence: HighSources: Established historical record · ISW campaign assessments↗
Phase VIThe drone-saturated long war2025 – present
What happened
The current phase is a contest of endurance. The front is saturated with surveillance and strike drones that make massed movement costly for both sides and keep territorial change slow and expensive. Deep strikes run in both directions — against Russian refineries and logistics, against Ukrainian power and gas infrastructure in seasonal campaigns. Negotiation probes recur without an agreed architecture: talks about talks, prisoner exchanges and limited-ceasefire proposals that so far change the war's diplomacy more than its conduct. Both war economies show strain — Russia's in inflation, labour shortages and reserve drawdowns; Ukraine's in dependence on external financing and a narrowing manpower base.
The period covers
- A drone-saturated front where attrition outpaces movement
- Deep-strike exchanges against energy and logistics on both sides
- Recurring negotiation probes without an agreed architecture
- War-economy strain accumulating in both capitals
Key analytical point
The variables that will decide where the line finally stops — aid continuity, industrial output, manpower policy, sanctions enforcement — move further from the front than ever. Watching the front alone now means watching the lagging indicator.
Key events in this phase
Confidence: ModerateSources: ISW campaign assessments↗ · Established international media reporting
Evidence and grading
- Phase
- An editorial period, not a schema state. A phase is Vigil’s own division of the background into dated stretches; the events inside it are dated and sourced individually on the timeline.
- Confidence
- How well established Vigil considers this assessment to be. It is not a measure of how severe the situation is.