Conflict coverage · Taiwan Strait

Reported air activity returns toward its pre-2024 baseline

2026Key eventTaiwan Strait

MilitaryThe Strait and the median line

Detected PLA air activity around Taiwan runs closer to pre-2024 levels through the first half of 2026, after the elevated tempo that followed May 2024. Analysts read the change as an adjustment in coercion strategy rather than a reduction in objectives, with reporting simultaneously describing a more regular China Coast Guard presence, including east of Taiwan.

Why it mattersThe most important current entry in the module, and the easiest to misread. A lower sortie count is not de-escalation if pressure has moved into instruments that are not counted — coast guard presence, economic measures, information operations. This is precisely why Vigil tracks the system rather than the number.

Confidence: ModerateSources: Taiwan Ministry of National Defense — activity reporting ↗ · CSIS China Power Project and ChinaPower analysis ↗ · Reuters — Taiwan and China coverage ↗Methodology Corrections

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Related structure

2 records that this event names, or that name it. Every one is an explicit reference in a published record — nothing here is inferred from subject matter.

Part of

Campaigns whose record places this event inside them.

Grey-zone pressureA peak in December, and a quieter air picture after it

Actors

Actor records this event names.

People's Republic of China

Where this fits

This is one entry in the Taiwan Strait timeline. The full Key Events surface carries every dated turning point with its filters and its essential subset, and this event in place shows what came before and after it. How Vigil grades, dates and sources its claims is set out in the methodology.