How a security development transmits into economic exposure or civilian impact, one step at a time — with every step graded for how firmly it is established.
Indo-Pacific / East AsiaStrategic flashpointPublished
Published
Newest chain assessed
2026-08
Conflict reviewed
2026-09-06
Weekly review / event-driven updates
Risk context, not investment advice. These records explain mechanisms and state how firmly each link is established; they contain no prices, tickers, named securities, forecasts or recommendations.
How each step is gradedA step can never be graded more firmly than the step it depends on: a consequence cannot be better established than its cause. That rule is enforced when this site is built — a chain that broke it would fail the build rather than publish.
ConfirmedDocumented as having occurred, with sources.
Plausible exposureA mechanism Vigil assesses as likely; not documented as having occurred.
Unconfirmed scenarioNamed because it is worth watching. Not asserted.
The mechanisms5 transmission mechanisms in Taiwan Strait, each shown as its own stage sequence. The grade under each stage is that step’s, not the chain’s — the point of the strip is to show where a mechanism stops being documented.
An advanced industrial economy holding eleven days of the fuel that makes half its power, and no way to get more except by sea.
Standing conditionNear-total energy import dependence on an island with no pipeline or land connection, combined with a generation mix weighted toward a fuel that cannot be stored long
Affected asset, route or regionConfirmed
Operational disruptionConfirmed
Exposed sector or commodityConfirmed
Broader economic significanceUnconfirmed scenario
Lands onElectricity generation · LNG, coal and refined-product imports · Semiconductor fabrication continuity · Industrial output and manufacturing costs · Household and commercial supply
The most concentrated industrial dependency in the world economy, and what is already known about how it behaves when it is interrupted.
Standing conditionThe present concentration of advanced semiconductor manufacturing in a single geography, and the dependencies that concentration creates
Affected asset, route or regionConfirmed
Operational disruptionConfirmed
Exposed sector or commodityConfirmed
Broader economic significanceUnconfirmed scenario
Lands onAdvanced-node semiconductors · Mature-node semiconductors · Automotive and industrial manufacturing · Consumer electronics · Input materials and semiconductor equipment
What it costs when ships decide to go the other way round — and the four days in 2022 when they did.
Standing conditionRoutine military activity conducted in waters carrying a substantial share of world commercial shipping, with periodic announced restrictions
Affected asset, route or regionConfirmed
Operational disruptionConfirmed
Exposed sector or commodityConfirmed
Broader economic significanceUnconfirmed scenario
Lands onContainer freight rates and transit times · Marine and war-risk insurance premiums · Taiwanese import and export volumes · Regional port throughput · Undersea cable connectivity
What twenty-three million people depend on arriving by sea, and what is actually known about the arrangements for when it does not.
Standing conditionA densely populated island importing almost all its energy and most of its food, with civil-defence structures designed around natural hazards
Lands onElectricity, water and sanitation continuity · Food availability and distribution · Health-service continuity · Communications and public information · Outlying-island community resilience
Lands onInternational and inter-island communications · Digital payments and banking access · Emergency coordination and public information · Health and government service access · Outlying-island community connectivity
4 graded stepsAs of 2026-06→
Evidence and grading
Basis
How firmly one STEP is established — documented, assessed as likely, or named but unverified. It is a property of the link, not of the chain.
Confidence
How well established Vigil considers this assessment to be. It is not a measure of how severe the situation is.
