Conflict coverage · Taiwan Strait

The median line ceases to function as a restraint

From August 2022Key eventEssentialTaiwan Strait

MilitaryThe Strait and the median line

Following the August 2022 exercises, crossings of the Taiwan Strait median line by PLA aircraft become routine rather than exceptional, and Beijing publicly rejects the line's existence as a recognised limit. Taiwan's defence ministry continues to report crossings daily.

Why it mattersThis is the single clearest illustration of how grey-zone pressure actually works: no announcement, no incident, no threshold crossed — an unwritten restraint observed for half a century simply stopped being observed, and the new normal was never given back. It is also why "no significant change" in a reporting period can still describe deterioration.

Confidence: HighSources: Taiwan Ministry of National Defense — activity reporting ↗ · CSIS China Power Project and ChinaPower analysis ↗ · Reuters — Taiwan and China coverage ↗Methodology Corrections

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2 records that this event names, or that name it. Every one is an explicit reference in a published record — nothing here is inferred from subject matter.

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Grey-zone pressureThe median line stops functioning

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People's Republic of China

Where this fits

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