Ce qu’est ce système
Hormuz is the only outlet of the enclosed sea every core state but Oman loads into, and Bab el-Mandeb is the gate of the Red Sea route the bypass pipelines reach. The module reads both through what stopped traffic in practice — war-risk cover and attribution — not through naval posture.
The access layer under the energy system: the energy system decides what can be loaded, this system decides whether it can sail, and the two are kept apart because cover and attribution move on a different clock from capacity.
Confiance : élevée Au 2026-10-21Revu le 2026-10-29
Le système
- Vue d’ensemble
- Two straits bound the system. Hormuz is the only outlet of the Gulf, and the commercial-closure chain records that the mechanism which stopped traffic in 2026 was marine war-risk cover rather than any physical block. Bab el-Mandeb is the gate of the Red Sea route that the Saudi East–West system and the Yanbu terminal reach, and the Red Sea rerouting chain records what shipping does when it is contested: the Yemeni ports of Hodeidah and Mokha and Perim island are the markers the module publishes for that approach. Bandar Abbas is Iran's principal commercial port on the northern shore.
- Current state · as of 2026-10-21
- As the crude-export record last assessed it (22 September 2026), commercial access through Hormuz turns on war-risk cover and the Makkah mechanism the module's Watch questions follow; the Red Sea approach is read through the rerouting and stranded-seafarer chains. No naval posture is stated here. In September 2026 Kpler put Gulf crude exports excluding Iran back at the pre-war level by a changed route: shuttle tankers and transfers off Sohar and Fujairah, with the rest from Fujairah and the Red Sea. That is volume moved without the strait reopening commercially, and six tankers were struck in it between 28 September and 2 October (crude-export record, 4 October). In October the strikes spread and the claims began: the Revolutionary Guard claimed a tanker for an "unauthorised route" on 9 October and stated a reach beyond the strait, Central Command declared the lanes open to ships not breaking its sanctions, a struck container ship sank on 14 October, and UKMTO counted combined transits about 70 per cent below pre-conflict levels in the weeks to 14 and 21 October. No cover was found written and no navigation régime agreed in any review to 25 October.
- Commodities and outputs
- Assurance maritime des risques de guerre
Nœuds
The published markers that carry this system value, by the module’s own priority. A note is the system record’s; a marker without one is a member by its own tag.
- Détroit d’OrmuzEspace maritime / détroit · contexte général
The only outlet of the enclosed sea.
- Bab el-MandebEspace maritime / détroit · contexte général
The Red Sea gate the bypass route must pass.
- Bandar AbbasPort
- Golfe d’OmanEspace maritime / détroit · contexte général
- HodeidahPort
- MokhaPort
- Perim (Mayyun)Île périphérique · géographie stratégique
- Jebel AliPort
The container and general-cargo port inside the strait, where the commercial closure reaches trade rather than oil; no throughput is estimated (module depth completion pass, 2026-10-29).
Routes and operators
Supply systems running through it
- Système d’exportation de brut et de produits dépendant d’OrmuzMineral export · 8 nodes · 6 documented disruptions · named by the recordLe système par lequel six des sept États centraux du Golfe envoient leur pétrole vers les marchés, convergeant vers un seul détroit.
- Système d’exportation de brut iranienMineral export · 4 nodes · 4 documented disruptions · joined by its nodesUn unique terminal à l’intérieur du détroit, et un contournement qui a été construit et n’a pratiquement pas servi.
- Système d’exportation de GNL du QatarGas & LNG · 3 nodes · 4 documented disruptions · joined by its nodesLa dépendance la plus nette du module : près d’un cinquième du GNL mondial, un complexe, un détroit, et aucune alternative d’envergure.
- Transit saoudien du brut est–ouestMineral export · 4 nodes · 8 documented disruptions · joined by its nodesLa plus grande alternative à Ormuz qui existe, limitée par son terminal plutôt que par son oléoduc, et débouchant sur un second détroit contesté.
Dependencies and constraints
Each marked documented (a published source states it) or assessed (Vigil infers it and says so). The two are never drawn the same way.
Marine war-risk cover. Cover, not capacity, decided whether loaded tankers sailed in 2026; the commercial-closure chain documents the mechanism.
Attribution of attacks. Whether an attack is attributed, and to whom, is what moves cover and the political mechanisms the module follows on Watch.
The Revolutionary Guard claimed a tanker strike for an "unauthorised route" and said action against "violating" vessels would no longer be limited to the strait; the same day Central Command declared the main lanes open to vessels not violating United States sanctions. Two unilateral conditions on passage, neither accepted by the other side or by the riparians, and neither a régime.
The Oman-convened ministerial on Hormuz navigation, which was to take up an Iran–Oman draft of temporary corridors and voluntary tolls, was postponed with no new date; no text has been published.
The Houthi movement took the last government-held stretch of Yemen's Red Sea coast down to Bab el-Mandeb; passage through the strait did not close, and no interference with non-Saudi shipping from the new positions was established.
Chaînes de transmission passant par ce système
Each step carries its own basis grade — Confirmed, Plausible exposure, Unconfirmed scenario — and a chain can only weaken from left to right.
- Le retrait commercial a fermé le détroitEconomic exposure · as of 2026-10-21
- asset Confirmé
- disruption Confirmé
- exposure Confirmé
- significance Confirmé
- Le débouché de contournement et le second goulet d’étranglementEconomic exposure · as of 2026-10-10
- asset Confirmé
- disruption Confirmé
- exposure Exposition plausible
- significance Exposition plausible
- Des équipages à bord de navires qui ne pouvaient pas bougerCivilian impact · as of 2026-09
- asset Confirmé
- disruption Confirmé
- exposure Confirmé
- significance Confirmé
- La perturbation d’Ormuz et les limites du contournementEconomic exposure · as of 2026-09-30
- asset Confirmé
- disruption Confirmé
- exposure Exposition plausible
- significance Exposition plausible
- Le GNL qatari et l’absence d’alternativeEconomic exposure · as of 2026-09-30
- asset Confirmé
- disruption Confirmé
- exposure Confirmé
- significance Exposition plausible
Watch questions bearing on it
- Le détroit d’Ormuz est-il de nouveau utilisable commercialement ?active · Movement observed 2026-11-01
- Bab el-Mandeb est-il encore utilisable, et pour qui ?active · No material change 2026-11-01
- Les nœuds énergétiques fixes du Golfe sont-ils remis en état plus vite qu’ils ne sont de nouveau frappés ?active · Movement observed 2026-11-01
- L’accord de Makkah devient-il un mécanisme de défense opérationnel ?active · Assessment changed 2026-11-01
- Le front saoudo-houthi se stabilise-t-il en un arrangement négocié, ou débouche-t-il sur une campagne saoudienne au Yémen ?active · Movement observed 2026-11-01
Events at its nodes
Economic exposures it underlies
Notes d’analyse
Actors and arrangements
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Évalué au — 2026-10-21 Dernière revue — 2026-10-29