Was dieses System ist
Hormuz is the only outlet of the enclosed sea every core state but Oman loads into, and Bab el-Mandeb is the gate of the Red Sea route the bypass pipelines reach. The module reads both through what stopped traffic in practice — war-risk cover and attribution — not through naval posture.
The access layer under the energy system: the energy system decides what can be loaded, this system decides whether it can sail, and the two are kept apart because cover and attribution move on a different clock from capacity.
Konfidenz: hoch Stand 2026-10-21Überprüft am 2026-10-29
Das System
- Überblick
- Two straits bound the system. Hormuz is the only outlet of the Gulf, and the commercial-closure chain records that the mechanism which stopped traffic in 2026 was marine war-risk cover rather than any physical block. Bab el-Mandeb is the gate of the Red Sea route that the Saudi East–West system and the Yanbu terminal reach, and the Red Sea rerouting chain records what shipping does when it is contested: the Yemeni ports of Hodeidah and Mokha and Perim island are the markers the module publishes for that approach. Bandar Abbas is Iran's principal commercial port on the northern shore.
- Current state · as of 2026-10-21
- As the crude-export record last assessed it (22 September 2026), commercial access through Hormuz turns on war-risk cover and the Makkah mechanism the module's Watch questions follow; the Red Sea approach is read through the rerouting and stranded-seafarer chains. No naval posture is stated here. In September 2026 Kpler put Gulf crude exports excluding Iran back at the pre-war level by a changed route: shuttle tankers and transfers off Sohar and Fujairah, with the rest from Fujairah and the Red Sea. That is volume moved without the strait reopening commercially, and six tankers were struck in it between 28 September and 2 October (crude-export record, 4 October). In October the strikes spread and the claims began: the Revolutionary Guard claimed a tanker for an "unauthorised route" on 9 October and stated a reach beyond the strait, Central Command declared the lanes open to ships not breaking its sanctions, a struck container ship sank on 14 October, and UKMTO counted combined transits about 70 per cent below pre-conflict levels in the weeks to 14 and 21 October. No cover was found written and no navigation régime agreed in any review to 25 October.
- Commodities and outputs
- Kriegsrisikoversicherung in der Seefahrt
Knoten
The published markers that carry this system value, by the module’s own priority. A note is the system record’s; a marker without one is a member by its own tag.
- Straße von HormusSeegebiet / Meerenge · weiter Kontext
The only outlet of the enclosed sea.
- Bab el-MandebSeegebiet / Meerenge · weiter Kontext
The Red Sea gate the bypass route must pass.
- Bandar AbbasHafen
- Golf von OmanSeegebiet / Meerenge · weiter Kontext
- HodeidahHafen
- MokhaHafen
- Perim (Mayyun)Vorgelagerte Insel · strategische Geografie
- Jebel AliHafen
The container and general-cargo port inside the strait, where the commercial closure reaches trade rather than oil; no throughput is estimated (module depth completion pass, 2026-10-29).
Routes and operators
Supply systems running through it
- Von Hormus abhängiges Exportsystem für Rohöl und ÖlprodukteMineral export · 8 nodes · 6 documented disruptions · named by the recordDas System, über das sechs der sieben Kern-Golfstaaten ihr Öl auf den Markt bringen, zusammenlaufend in einer Meerenge.
- Iranisches RohölexportsystemMineral export · 4 nodes · 4 documented disruptions · joined by its nodesEin einzelnes Terminal innerhalb der Meerenge und eine Umgehung, die gebaut und kaum genutzt wurde.
- Katarisches LNG-ExportsystemGas & LNG · 3 nodes · 4 documented disruptions · joined by its nodesDie klarste Abhängigkeit im Modul: fast ein Fünftel des weltweiten LNG, ein Komplex, eine Meerenge und keine Alternative von nennenswerter Größe.
- Saudischer Ost-West-Transit von RohölMineral export · 4 nodes · 8 documented disruptions · joined by its nodesDie größte existierende Alternative zu Hormus, begrenzt durch ihr Terminal und nicht durch ihre Pipeline, und mündend in eine zweite umkämpfte Meerenge.
Dependencies and constraints
Each marked documented (a published source states it) or assessed (Vigil infers it and says so). The two are never drawn the same way.
Marine war-risk cover. Cover, not capacity, decided whether loaded tankers sailed in 2026; the commercial-closure chain documents the mechanism.
Attribution of attacks. Whether an attack is attributed, and to whom, is what moves cover and the political mechanisms the module follows on Watch.
The Revolutionary Guard claimed a tanker strike for an "unauthorised route" and said action against "violating" vessels would no longer be limited to the strait; the same day Central Command declared the main lanes open to vessels not violating United States sanctions. Two unilateral conditions on passage, neither accepted by the other side or by the riparians, and neither a régime.
The Oman-convened ministerial on Hormuz navigation, which was to take up an Iran–Oman draft of temporary corridors and voluntary tolls, was postponed with no new date; no text has been published.
The Houthi movement took the last government-held stretch of Yemen's Red Sea coast down to Bab el-Mandeb; passage through the strait did not close, and no interference with non-Saudi shipping from the new positions was established.
Übertragungsketten durch dieses System
Each step carries its own basis grade — Confirmed, Plausible exposure, Unconfirmed scenario — and a chain can only weaken from left to right.
- Der kommerzielle Rückzug hat die Meerenge geschlossenEconomic exposure · as of 2026-10-21
- asset Bestätigt
- disruption Bestätigt
- exposure Bestätigt
- significance Bestätigt
- Der Umgehungsausgang und das zweite NadelöhrEconomic exposure · as of 2026-10-10
- asset Bestätigt
- disruption Bestätigt
- exposure Plausible Exposition
- significance Plausible Exposition
- Besatzungen an Bord von Schiffen, die sich nicht bewegen konntenCivilian impact · as of 2026-09
- asset Bestätigt
- disruption Bestätigt
- exposure Bestätigt
- significance Bestätigt
- Die Störung von Hormus und die Grenzen der UmgehungEconomic exposure · as of 2026-09-30
- asset Bestätigt
- disruption Bestätigt
- exposure Plausible Exposition
- significance Plausible Exposition
- Katarisches LNG und das Fehlen einer AlternativeEconomic exposure · as of 2026-09-30
- asset Bestätigt
- disruption Bestätigt
- exposure Bestätigt
- significance Plausible Exposition
Watch questions bearing on it
- Ist die Straße von Hormus wieder kommerziell nutzbar?active · Movement observed 2026-11-01
- Ist Bab el-Mandeb noch nutzbar, und für wen?active · No material change 2026-11-01
- Werden die festen Energieknoten am Golf schneller wiederhergestellt, als sie erneut getroffen werden?active · Movement observed 2026-11-01
- Wird das Makkah Agreement zu einem operativen Verteidigungsmechanismus?active · Assessment changed 2026-11-01
- Mündet die saudisch–huthische Front in eine ausgehandelte Regelung, oder eskaliert sie zu einer saudischen Kampagne im Jemen?active · Movement observed 2026-11-01
Events at its nodes
Economic exposures it underlies
Analytische Notizen
Actors and arrangements
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Eingeschätzt zum Stand — 2026-10-21 Zuletzt überprüft — 2026-10-29