ما هذه المنظومة
Hormuz is the only outlet of the enclosed sea every core state but Oman loads into, and Bab el-Mandeb is the gate of the Red Sea route the bypass pipelines reach. The module reads both through what stopped traffic in practice — war-risk cover and attribution — not through naval posture.
The access layer under the energy system: the energy system decides what can be loaded, this system decides whether it can sail, and the two are kept apart because cover and attribution move on a different clock from capacity.
الثقة: عالية حتى 2026-10-21رُوجع 2026-10-29
المنظومة
- نظرة عامة
- Two straits bound the system. Hormuz is the only outlet of the Gulf, and the commercial-closure chain records that the mechanism which stopped traffic in 2026 was marine war-risk cover rather than any physical block. Bab el-Mandeb is the gate of the Red Sea route that the Saudi East–West system and the Yanbu terminal reach, and the Red Sea rerouting chain records what shipping does when it is contested: the Yemeni ports of Hodeidah and Mokha and Perim island are the markers the module publishes for that approach. Bandar Abbas is Iran's principal commercial port on the northern shore.
- Current state · as of 2026-10-21
- As the crude-export record last assessed it (22 September 2026), commercial access through Hormuz turns on war-risk cover and the Makkah mechanism the module's Watch questions follow; the Red Sea approach is read through the rerouting and stranded-seafarer chains. No naval posture is stated here. In September 2026 Kpler put Gulf crude exports excluding Iran back at the pre-war level by a changed route: shuttle tankers and transfers off Sohar and Fujairah, with the rest from Fujairah and the Red Sea. That is volume moved without the strait reopening commercially, and six tankers were struck in it between 28 September and 2 October (crude-export record, 4 October). In October the strikes spread and the claims began: the Revolutionary Guard claimed a tanker for an "unauthorised route" on 9 October and stated a reach beyond the strait, Central Command declared the lanes open to ships not breaking its sanctions, a struck container ship sank on 14 October, and UKMTO counted combined transits about 70 per cent below pre-conflict levels in the weeks to 14 and 21 October. No cover was found written and no navigation régime agreed in any review to 25 October.
- Commodities and outputs
- التأمين البحري ضد مخاطر الحرب
العُقد
The published markers that carry this system value, by the module’s own priority. A note is the system record’s; a marker without one is a member by its own tag.
- مضيق هرمزمنطقة بحرية / مضيق · سياق عام
The only outlet of the enclosed sea.
- باب المندبمنطقة بحرية / مضيق · سياق عام
The Red Sea gate the bypass route must pass.
- بندر عباسميناء
- خليج عُمانمنطقة بحرية / مضيق · سياق عام
- الحديدةميناء
- المخاميناء
- جزيرة ميون (Perim)جزيرة نائية · جغرافيا استراتيجية
- Jebel Aliميناء
The container and general-cargo port inside the strait, where the commercial closure reaches trade rather than oil; no throughput is estimated (module depth completion pass, 2026-10-29).
Routes and operators
Supply systems running through it
- منظومة تصدير الخام والمنتجات المعتمدة على هرمزMineral export · 8 nodes · 6 documented disruptions · named by the recordالمنظومة التي ترسل عبرها ست من الدول الخليجية السبع الأساسية نفطها إلى السوق، متقاربةً عند مضيق واحد.
- منظومة تصدير النفط الخام الإيرانيةMineral export · 4 nodes · 4 documented disruptions · joined by its nodesمحطة واحدة داخل المضيق، ومنفذ التفافي بُني ولم يكد يُستخدم.
- منظومة تصدير الغاز الطبيعي المسال القطريةGas & LNG · 3 nodes · 4 documented disruptions · joined by its nodesأوضح تبعية في الملف: ما يقارب خُمس الغاز الطبيعي المسال في العالم، ومجمع واحد، ومضيق واحد، ولا بديل ذا شأن.
- العبور السعودي للنفط الخام شرق–غربMineral export · 4 nodes · 8 documented disruptions · joined by its nodesأكبر بديل قائم لهرمز، تحدّه محطته لا خط أنابيبه، ويفضي إلى مضيق ثانٍ متنازع عليه.
Dependencies and constraints
Each marked documented (a published source states it) or assessed (Vigil infers it and says so). The two are never drawn the same way.
Marine war-risk cover. Cover, not capacity, decided whether loaded tankers sailed in 2026; the commercial-closure chain documents the mechanism.
Attribution of attacks. Whether an attack is attributed, and to whom, is what moves cover and the political mechanisms the module follows on Watch.
The Revolutionary Guard claimed a tanker strike for an "unauthorised route" and said action against "violating" vessels would no longer be limited to the strait; the same day Central Command declared the main lanes open to vessels not violating United States sanctions. Two unilateral conditions on passage, neither accepted by the other side or by the riparians, and neither a régime.
The Oman-convened ministerial on Hormuz navigation, which was to take up an Iran–Oman draft of temporary corridors and voluntary tolls, was postponed with no new date; no text has been published.
The Houthi movement took the last government-held stretch of Yemen's Red Sea coast down to Bab el-Mandeb; passage through the strait did not close, and no interference with non-Saudi shipping from the new positions was established.
سلاسل الانتقال عبر هذه المنظومة
Each step carries its own basis grade — Confirmed, Plausible exposure, Unconfirmed scenario — and a chain can only weaken from left to right.
- الانسحاب التجاري أغلق المضيقEconomic exposure · as of 2026-10-21
- asset مؤكَّد
- disruption مؤكَّد
- exposure مؤكَّد
- significance مؤكَّد
- منفذ الالتفاف ونقطة الاختناق الثانيةEconomic exposure · as of 2026-10-10
- asset مؤكَّد
- disruption مؤكَّد
- exposure انكشاف معقول
- significance انكشاف معقول
- طواقم على متن سفن لم تستطع الحركةCivilian impact · as of 2026-09
- asset مؤكَّد
- disruption مؤكَّد
- exposure مؤكَّد
- significance مؤكَّد
- اضطراب هرمز وحدود الالتفافEconomic exposure · as of 2026-09-30
- asset مؤكَّد
- disruption مؤكَّد
- exposure انكشاف معقول
- significance انكشاف معقول
- الغاز الطبيعي المسال القطري وغياب البديلEconomic exposure · as of 2026-09-30
- asset مؤكَّد
- disruption مؤكَّد
- exposure مؤكَّد
- significance انكشاف معقول
Watch questions bearing on it
- هل عاد مضيق هرمز صالحًا للاستخدام التجاري؟active · Movement observed 2026-11-01
- هل لا يزال باب المندب صالحًا للاستخدام، ولمن؟active · No material change 2026-11-01
- هل تُستعاد عقد الطاقة الثابتة في الخليج أسرع مما تُضرب مجددًا؟active · Movement observed 2026-11-01
- هل يصبح اتفاق مكة آلية دفاعية عملياتية؟active · Assessment changed 2026-11-01
- هل تستقر الجبهة السعودية–الحوثية على ترتيب تفاوضي، أم تتصاعد إلى حملة سعودية في اليمن؟active · Movement observed 2026-11-01
Events at its nodes
Economic exposures it underlies
مذكرات تحليلية
Actors and arrangements
افتح في «استكشف» تفاعلي: اختر هذا السجل وتتبّع ما يرتبط به.
التقييم حتى — 2026-10-21 آخر مراجعة — 2026-10-29