Ce qu’a été cette campagne
The Saudi–Houthi front reopened in July 2026. The Houthi movement declared a blockade of Saudi shipping, struck southern Saudi Arabia on 8 September and took the last government-held Red Sea coast; from 4 October a Saudi-backed offensive contested that shore while attacks on Riyadh killed civilians. The strait is open.
This front is why the module treats the Gulf's two straits as one system. The east–west pipeline exists to move Saudi crude away from Hormuz and delivers it to the Red Sea, whose exit this campaign contests; for six months the honest answer to "what if Hormuz stays shut" included that pipeline, and this round interrupted the answer at its mouth and then at its middle. It is also the first test of the Makkah agreement — an attack on a signatory's territory, answered by condemnation — and the reason the Houthi movement is a launch actor of a module about the Gulf.
Confiance : modérée Au 2026-10-24Revu le 2026-10-29
Synthèse
The 2022 ceasefire understanding between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi movement held, in effect, for four years. On 13 July 2026 Sanaa airport was struck as an Iranian aircraft was expected to return a Houthi delegation from the funeral of the Iranian Supreme Leader; Yemen's internationally recognised government claimed the strike and reporting also attributed it to Saudi Arabia. The movement declared the de-escalation phase over and attacked Abha airport the same day. A week later it declared a blockade on vessels calling at Saudi ports at Bab el-Mandeb; transits fell by about a quarter and Saudi Arabia rerouted Asia-bound crude through Suez. Saudi Arabia answered with coalitions rather than strikes it acknowledged: a multinational maritime defence alliance declared in Riyadh on 30 July and the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement with Türkiye and Pakistan on 7 August. On 8 September the movement struck Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan and Najran in what the coalition spokesman described as the heaviest wave of the round, wounding 73 by the Saudi count; no Makkah signatory answered with the agreement. On 10–11 September the movement took Mokha, Dhubab, Perim and Zuqar — the last government-held Red Sea coast — while the east–west pipeline was struck by drones from Iraq on the same morning. Help then came bilaterally: Britain and France committed defensive support, France to guard Yanbu, and the Makkah Agreement's chiefs met in Riyadh on 25 September and its committee decided on 5 October to implement its collective-defence commitments, naming no force. On 4 October Yemen's Leadership Council announced operations to retake Houthi-held territory under a Saudi-led air campaign the coalition called "Yemen Dawn"; by 10 October the government's own sources said the waterway was not secured and Perim remained in Houthi hands. Attacks on Riyadh's airport killed three people on 8 October and at least twelve on 10 October by Saudi account, and the Security Council's presidential statement of 15 October condemned the strikes and affirmed Saudi Arabia's right of self-defence, authorising nothing. Houthi fire reached Aden in mid-October, and strikes killed four people in the Eastern Province in the week to 24 October, two at Dammam's airport, which the movement said it targeted. At the last review the Bab el-Mandeb shore was claimed by both sides and secured by neither, and no interference with non-Saudi shipping from it had been established.
Objectifs déclarés
Ce que disent les participants. Chaque entrée cite où la position a été exprimée ; Vigil consigne qu’elle a été exprimée, non qu’elle est vraie.
The Houthi movement has stated that navigation for everyone but Saudi shipping remains safe and orderly, that the strike on Sanaa airport breached the 2022 understanding, and that its operations answer Saudi air strikes in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia has stated the purpose of the maritime alliance as keeping the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden open, and has reported the September attacks as attacks on civilian and economic sites.
Objectifs évalués
La lecture de Vigil, assortie d’un degré de confiance. Tenue structurellement à l’écart des positions déclarées, afin qu’une évaluation ne puisse jamais être publiée comme l’objectif déclaré de quelqu’un.
The movement's target set — Saudi shipping, Saudi territory, the Saudi pipeline's outlet — serves Houthi leverage over Riyadh whether or not it serves Tehran, and the round began as a consequence of the Iranian succession rather than of anything inside Yemen.
Saudi Arabia's choice of coalitions over acknowledged strikes is a fact about choice rather than capability; the round has so far been fought by one party with missiles and the other with instruments.
Forces principales
- Forces armées houthies Primary force · Confidence: High
The force that declared the blockade, claimed the strike waves and took the coast.
- Forces de missiles et de drones houthies Primary force · Confidence: Moderate
The component through which the ballistic and one-way-attack strikes on Saudi territory are delivered; attribution to the component is Vigil's.
- Forces navales et côtières houthies Primary force · Confidence: Moderate
The component through which a blockade of shipping is physically enforced and the coastal advance was made.
Forces adverses
- Royal Saudi Air Defense Forces Opposing force · Confidence: Moderate
The service whose mission the 8 September wave engaged; no interception outcome is authored.
Parties touchées
- Saudi Western Fleet Affected party · Confidence: Moderate
The fleet whose water the blockade covers; nothing establishes what it did, and the role is graded accordingly.
- Combined Maritime Forces Affected party · Confidence: Moderate
Its task forces cover the strait the campaign bears on; it is not a party to the Saudi–Houthi war.
The reopening
The Sanaa airport strike, the movement's declaration that the de-escalation phase was over, the attack on Abha the same day, and the declaration of the blockade a week later.
Coalitions and agreements
Saudi Arabia's answer in instruments: the maritime defence alliance declared in Riyadh, the Makkah agreement signed in Mecca, and the agreement's first committee meeting in Istanbul — a secretariat before a tested procedure.
The strike wave and the coast
The heaviest attack wave of the round on southern Saudi Arabia, answered by no signatory with the agreement; the coastal advance that took Mokha, Dhubab, Perim and Zuqar; and, the same morning, the pipeline attack from Iraq that shut the Hormuz alternative in the middle.
Help from outside the procedure
The pipeline is reported restarted at a low rate on unnamed sources; Britain and France commit defensive support bilaterally, France to guard Yanbu; the Makkah Agreement's chiefs of staff consult in Riyadh and its committee decides to implement the collective-defence commitments, naming no force, size, mission or date.
L’offensive pour la côte
Yemen's Leadership Council announces operations to retake Houthi-held territory under a Saudi-led air campaign; the Bab el-Mandeb shore is claimed by both sides and secured by neither. Attacks on Riyadh's airport kill civilians in the capital, the Security Council affirms Saudi Arabia's right of self-defence in a presidential statement that authorises nothing, and strikes reach Aden and the Eastern Province.
Issue et situation actuelle
Ouverte lors de la dernière revue, le 29 octobre 2026. Le blocus de la navigation saoudienne se maintient à des conditions inchangées ; l’offensive annoncée le 4 octobre dispute la côte yéménite de la mer Rouge, revendiquée par les deux camps et tenue par aucun ; le détroit est ouvert à tous les autres ; le comité de l’accord de Makkah a décidé de mettre en œuvre ses engagements sans nommer de force, et aucune invocation de sa clause de défense collective n’a été consignée.
Implications politiques
The Makkah agreement acquired institutions before it acquired a procedure, and the first attack on a signatory's territory produced condemnation and no invocation; what the agreement is for is now an open question rather than an assumption.
Implications économiques
Saudi crude that bypasses Hormuz must leave by a strait the movement has declared closed to it and a line that is currently shut; the mitigation the module described in September is thinner than it was in August.
Implications humanitaires
Blessés sur le territoire saoudien selon le décompte saoudien ; la situation humanitaire à l’intérieur du Yémen se situe hors du module et n’est pas rédigée ici.
Événements liés
Lieux
Lieux que ce module publie déjà comme repères cartographiques, listés parce que la campagne les concerne. Pas une zone d’opérations.
Ce qui reste inconnu
- Who struck Sanaa airport on 13 July is claimed by the recognised government and attributed by reporting to Saudi Arabia; the record carries both and adopts neither.
- The extent of the coastal control line is the movement's own count and no independent verification has been read.
- What Saudi forces did in Yemen in this round rests on the movement's claim of more than a hundred air strikes over three days and is not authored.
Lectures que les éléments permettent aussi
- The coastal advance may be read as preparation for a fuller blockade, as a bargaining position for a renewed understanding, or as an opportunistic collapse of the government's coastal defence; the evidence supports the third at least and does not decide the first two.
Figure ici parce que l’évaluation propre à la fiche n’est pas la seule que ses sources permettent — et non comme une réserve sur l’évaluation ci-dessus.
Questions Watch que cette campagne concerne
Questions analytiques permanentes dont les éléments passent par cette campagne, chacune avec sa dernière revue. Dérivées de l’objet Watch, jamais reformulées ici.
Voir dans Explorer la force qui conduit cette campagne Interactif : sélectionnez cette fiche et suivez ce qui s’y rattache.
Évalué au — 2026-10-24 Dernière revue — 2026-10-29