Observed operations
Northeast integration
A decade of self-rule ending by agreement — signed twice, fought over once, and still being implemented file by file.
Conflict coverage · Syria
Context, not targeting. Campaign records describe objectives, participants, phases and outcomes at the level of published analysis; they contain no current positions, force ratios, unit locations or strengths.
Campaigns6 sustained efforts in Syria, each grouping the events that belong to it. Status describes where a campaign stands, never who is winning.
Observed operations
Extending state authority
A government that took the capital in eleven days has spent eighteen months discovering how much of the country that did not come with.
Observed operations
Israel's southern security campaign
Strikes, incursions and negotiations running at the same time — pressure applied from high ground by a party that does not need to hold the plain.
Observed operations
Türkiye's northern security campaign
Ten years, three ground operations and one demand that no agreement has yet been able to satisfy on paper.
Observed operations
The anti-ISIS campaign and the residual insurgency
A caliphate destroyed in five years, an insurgency that has outlasted it by seven, and a detention system nobody wanted to inherit.
Observed operations
The offensive that ended the Assad era
Eleven days from Idlib to Damascus — a fifty-four-year state that lost the country faster than anyone, including the people taking it, expected.
Evidence and grading
- Observed operation
- Documented as having occurred or as occurring, with sources. Its lifecycle status says where it stands.
- Confidence
- How well established Vigil considers this assessment to be. It is not a measure of how severe the situation is.